polymarket 送钱了 (3% APR)
Polymarket 3% APR 套利争议与风险讨论汇总。
1. 关键信息
- 平台：Polymarket 预测市场，年化 3% APR。
- 争议事件：#29 有人利用吹风机加热戴高乐机场气候传感器，押注巴黎最高温获利 3.69 万美元。
- 风险质疑：#19、#23、#25 质疑结果判定机制与数据源可靠性。
2. 羊毛/优惠信息
无
3. 最新动态
- #8 讨论套利是否属于 free money。
- #29 黑色幽默金融诈骗案例：传感器被物理加热导致市场失真。
4. 争议或不同意见
- #2、#9、#11、#12：认为无 free money，需考虑基础设施与套利成本。
- #16：质疑回报率仅 3% 缺乏吸引力。
- #23、#25：结果判定规则不明确可能导致错误结算。
5. 行动建议
谨慎参与，注意数据源与结算规则，避免被操纵市场影响。
一年一次 https://polymarket.com/event/will-jesus-christ-return-before-2027 https://polymarket.com/event/will-jesus-christ-return-before-2027 View real-time odds on "Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?" as of January 9, 2026, and trade on The World's Largest Prediction Market™ https://www.uscardforum.com/t/topic/405891
there is no such thing as free money
ytd 3%，甚至不如tbill
free money 是投 yes 还是 no 啊 /s
对于买两边的人来说都是free money
yes 万一呢 /uploads/short-url/i9snfQwzIk8Al9ev5L4XwdvQHh6.png?dl=1 sell怎么玩 /uploads/short-url/8hZ8jBgzwB5p3UncHFPYNAQlAr2.png?dl=1
sell就是你已经买了，手上的shares不想等到结算日，想提前卖掉 你如果手上没有，polymarket不能naked sell
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.03474 https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.03474 Polymarket is a prediction market platform where users can speculate on future events by trading shares tied to specific outcomes, known as conditions. Each market is associated with a set of one or more such conditions. To ensure proper market... 这种套利算不算free money
https://polymarket.com/profile/0x564f111fae87f4d68b089ab8431c23b136fa7034 2d ago Is this the most free money ever? 10 Hide 1 Replies https://polymarket.com/profile/0x39f3b70a2865d64424a27c6689e4e609bdd24ea0 8h ago https://polymarket.com/profile/0x564f111fae87f4d68b089ab8431c23b136fa7034 You are basically loaning the money to the platform, if you invest in the s and p 500 you can make upwards of 10% return, 3% is nothing, even saving accounts have higher annual returns
他这计价不是linear的 买的人多了价格会提上去 /uploads/short-url/gPoeEQVjmYfVtX2t8xrmHuhVjtq.png?dl=1 /uploads/short-url/pC0EBQ1AVOUfdKcqGs110TkcnOh.png?dl=1
是啊。。你买得有人卖啊，它这个是estimate, 因为liquidity太低了
arbitrage不是什么新东西吧，market makers一直在explore market inefficiencies, 你要这个“free money”投入的infra呢 靠手动肯定不行的
怎么才能在美国买？ 挂VPN?
有bot trading https://finbold.com/polymarket-trading-bot-that-turned-300-into-400000-is-now-up-this-much/ https://finbold.com/polymarket-trading-bot-that-turned-300-into-400000-is-now-up-this-much/ The trading bot that managed to turn a $300 investment into more than $400,000 appears to have continued its winning streak. Est. reading time: 2 minutes https://github.com/zydomus219/Polymarket-betting-bot https://github.com/zydomus219/Polymarket-betting-bot 通过在 GitHub 上创建帐户来为 zydomus219/Polymarket-betting-bot 开发做出贡献。
肯定有bot, 哪里都有，crypto里也有搬砖。但是如果你算法比别人慢，就输了。这就是一个靠infra的work
才赚32倍，有点不尊重人了，应该一千倍起步
真来了就是审判日了，股市估值ai半导体全都无所谓了
融资新手段？平台转手去买国债 CFO: free money
这个风险很大啊，如果川普宣布自己是耶稣怎么办……
不会 上次刺杀活下来的时候 他自己亲口说听到上帝在自己耳边说话 所以不可能是他自己
/uploads/short-url/7YK7Gr9nKMrN2I6gKc61idnvtYf.png?dl=1 还没手续费贵，而且要拿走你的资金一整年，是大阴毛 /uploads/short-url/l1Tz8QRdVBLSTw6VBlE2BvgyxOC.png?dl=1
说这玩意比起之前发的完全就是joke 那个apy 20%
最终结果谁来判定，比如非要有（一群）人说god就是出现了，你没看见是你心不诚，最后判定god出现，那不是亏大了
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources. 确实有概率翻车
这种没写结果判定source的小心有坑 比如怎么认定是否second coming？
这是你给他们送钱吧
美国政府 aliens, APY 20% +
懂不懂什么叫三位一体啊
“万物皆可赌” 的Polymarket 最近遭遇了带有“黑色幽默”的金融诈骗。一男子两次押注巴黎最高温达到22℃，两次都中了，获利3.69万美元。他的做法很简单，用便携式吹风机加热戴高乐机场的气候传感器。巴黎气象局已报警。
https://www.uscardforum.com/t/topic/485379/117 /c/investment/9 /uploads/short-url/lJFGDUaK1kTRMV0hKlZz8zR0ceX.png?dl=1 年化快30%了吧
到底为什么知道是那个传感器 有insider information或者prior knowledge
因为如何resolve都会写在rule里 不然不是resolver想是啥结果就是啥结果
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. eyeshield21: 因为如何resolve wtf，难道机场散步就散到了吗 也太草台了吧 /uploads/short-url/8OUdpVUgJ7zAnrM1x09x6tAYf9Y.jpeg?dl=1