Walter Schloss on common stock

有感于最近板上投机/fomo情绪严重，碰巧这两天看到别人贴的一些前人的投资智慧，其中很多条对于现在也是很有意义的，故分享出来与君共勉。

Walter Shloss是老巴口中的Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville一员。

en.wikipedia.org

Walter Schloss

Walter Jerome Schloss (August 28, 1916 – February 19, 2012) was an American investor, fund manager, and philanthropist. He was a well-regarded value investor as well as a notable disciple of the Benjamin Graham school of investing. He died of leukemia at the age of 95.
Schloss did not attend college. In 1934 at the age of 18, he started work as a runner on Wall Street. Schloss took investment courses taught by Graham at the New York Stock Exchange Institute while being employed at Loeb, Rhoades ...

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有没有大佬解释一下，到底如何“establish the value of the company”？如何判断一个公司是undervalue还是overvalue？像巴菲特那样的定价逻辑是不是科技股都overvalue了？

你可以读一下这段，个人觉得解释的很明白

INTRINSIC VALUE

Now let’s focus on two terms that I mentioned earlier and that you will encounter in future annual reports.

Let’s start with intrinsic value, an all-important concept that offers the only logical approach to evaluating the relative attractiveness of investments and businesses. Intrinsic value can be defined simply: It is the discounted value of the cash that can be taken out of a business during its remaining life.

The calculation of intrinsic value, though, is not so simple. As our definition suggests, intrinsic value is an estimate rather than a precise figure, and it is additionally an estimate that must be changed if interest rates move or forecasts of future cash flows are revised. Two people looking at the same set of facts, moreover - and this would apply even to Charlie and me - will almost inevitably come up with at least slightly different intrinsic value figures. That is one reason we never give you our estimates of intrinsic value. What our annual reports do supply, though, are the facts that we ourselves use to calculate this value.

Meanwhile, we regularly report our per-share book value, an easily calculable number, though one of limited use. The limitations do not arise from our holdings of marketable securities, which are carried on our books at their current prices. Rather the inadequacies of book value have to do with the companies we control, whose values as stated on our books may be far different from their intrinsic values.

The disparity can go in either direction. For example, in 1964 we could state with certitude that Berkshire’s per-share book value was $19.46. However, that figure considerably overstated the company’s intrinsic value, since all of the company’s resources were tied up in a sub-profitable textile business. Our textile assets had neither going- concern nor liquidation values equal to their carrying values. Today, however, Berkshire’s situation is reversed: Now, our book value far understates Berkshire’s intrinsic value, a point true because many of the businesses we control are worth much more than their carrying value.

Inadequate though they are in telling the story, we give you Berkshire’s book-value figures because they today serve as a rough, albeit significantly understated, tracking measure for Berkshire’s intrinsic value. In other words, the percentage change in book value in any given year is likely to be reasonably close to that year’s change in intrinsic value.

You can gain some insight into the differences between book value and intrinsic value by looking at one form of investment, a college education. Think of the education’s cost as its “book value.” If this cost is to be accurate, it should include the earnings that were foregone by the student because he chose college rather than a job.

For this exercise, we will ignore the important non-economic benefits of an education and focus strictly on its economic value. First, we must estimate the earnings that the graduate will receive over his lifetime and subtract from that figure an estimate of what he would have earned had he lacked his education. That gives us an excess earnings figure, which must then be discounted, at an appropriate interest rate, back to graduation day. The dollar result equals the intrinsic economic value of the education.

Some graduates will find that the book value of their education exceeds its intrinsic value, which means that whoever paid for the education didn’t get his money’s worth. In other cases, the intrinsic value of an education will far exceed its book value, a result that proves capital was wisely deployed. In all cases, what is clear is that book value is meaningless as an indicator of intrinsic value.

https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/owners.html

在美国的股市投机，是不是比在A股里投机还要危险呢？美股市场里散户比例不大

【引用自 Outsider】:
在美国的股市投机，是不是比在A股里投机还要危险呢？
不懂投机
【引用自 Outsider】:
美股市场里散户比例不大
疫情之后应该散户越来越多了，具体比例不清楚

金句